John Maynard Keynes predicted the widespread use of technological unemployment, almost one century ago.
The study “the future of employment” published by the University of Oxford in 2013 reveals that: “47 percent of total US employment is in the high risk category, meaning that associated occupations are potentially automatable over some unspecified number of years, perhaps a decade or two”. Among those jobs which are most likely to become automated, are the traditional factory workers and cashiers. There are also bankers, accountants and consultants who are put at risk. The probability for accountants and auditors of being substituted by machines in the next few years is of 95%, for retail salespeople is 92. In this list, there are also truck-drivers: Mercedes has already developed a truck with self-guide that is going to be commercialized within 2026. There are also lawyers-software, which are able to analyze millions of sentences in order to process a solution.
How is all possible? Well, robots are becoming something more than simply programmed machines. New software, developed by important ICT companies such google and IBM, are now capable of being synchronized with the routine work of high-work load jobs, for instance in the transport sectors of large package movers such as Amazon.
Robots, other creating more productivity and maximizing efficiency of firms, have evident cost-advantages compared to the tax-wage costs and insurance coverage that human workers must have. Recently a manager of McDonald has asserted, after a strike, that if they could replace a worker that prepares meals with a robot, they would save half of the money necessary to an employee. The more technology improves, the more costs are minimized and efficiency is improved. In order to fill this gap between workers and robots expenses, a proposal had been presented to European Commission. This new fiscal law established a new tax on robots, as they were people hired by the company, with all related social and fiscal securities. However, the Commission refused it, sustaining that it is a barrier against progress. The idea of robots taxation has been sustained also from Bill Gates, the former CEO of Microsoft.
In addition, he has even proposed an income from citizenship, in order to help unemployed people. This proposal could resolve partially the problem but the cost would be huge for any country. An alternative idea has been that of redistributing income through a new taxation system for hi-tech companies that enjoy large profit margins. Apple is the most stunning case: they hold than $250 billion reserves. However, this idea seems not so much applicable, given that hi-tech companies are not willing to contribute to welfare of society.
It is becoming more and more difficult to find a job nowadays. The demand is high and the offer is diminishing. The skills required by employers are becoming more complex and, to get them, many years of studying are required. The poorest part of the population, which lives in the skirts of the cities, is the most hit. They do not know how to do, given that their previous job is not available anymore. Today, many says that we have to create by ourselves our job. The question is how many people are able to do that?
By Eugenio Baldo
